http://www.centerforpolitics.o…
Presidential Race:
Obama – 364 EV
McCain – 174 EV
Senate:
Dem gains of 7-8 SeatsDem Pickups – AK, CO, NH, NM, NC, OR, VA
Rep Pickups – None
Projected Run-off – GA
House:
Dem Gains of 25-35 SeatsDemocratic Pick-up (29)
AK-AL (Young)
AZ-01 (OPEN)
CA-04 (OPEN)
CO-04 (Musgrave)
CT-04 (Shays)
FL-08 (Keller)
FL-21 (L. Diaz-Balart)
FL-24 (Feeney)
IL-10 (Kirk)
IL-11 (OPEN)
KY-02 (OPEN)
MI-07 (Walberg)
MI-09 (Knollenberg)
MN-03 (OPEN)
MN-06 (Bachmann)
NC-08 (Hayes)
NJ-03 (OPEN)
NM-01 (OPEN)
NM-02 (OPEN)
NV-03 (Porter)
NY-13 (OPEN)
NY-25 (OPEN)
NY-26 (OPEN)
NY-29 (Kuhl)
OH-15 (OPEN)
OH-16 (OPEN)
PA-03 (English)
VA-11 (OPEN)
WA-08 (Reichert)Republican Pick-up (3)
TX-22 (Lampson)
PA-11 (Kanjorski)
FL-16 (Mahoney)Dem Races Too Close To Call (9)
FL-25 (M. Diaz-Balart)
ID-01 (Sali)
IN-03 (Souder)
LA-04 (OPEN)
MD-01 (OPEN)
NE-02 (Terry)
NJ-07 (OPEN)
OH-01 (Chabot)
WY-AL (OPEN)
Governorships:
No Gain to Dem gain of 1Dem Pickups – MO
Rep Pickups – None
Pick TBA Monday – NC
I would actually drop NY-26 off the pickups and add AL-02, FL-25, ID-01, IN-03, NE-02, LA-04, OH-01, and VA-02 to the list of Dem pickups and add Kanjorski back to Dem hold. Thats a net gain of 34.
column. I mean, Democrats spend 3.5 million here to Shadegg’s 2.5 million if we add DCCC + Lord together. Polls have had this relatively close for an incumbent… Wonder if there’s still the window for an upset or if I’m just smoking something.
….but I’m only betting on 291 electoral votes for Obama (the Kerry states plus IA, NM, CO, VA, and NV). Sabato is still calling, among other states, Missouri for Obama. That strikes me as doubtful right now.
In the Senate, I agree with him on all races. Three days ago, I would have bet on Liddy Dole still holding off Hagan in NC, but Dole’s lame religious-baiting tactic reeks of amateur hour and I expect a surge to Hagan in the final days because of it.
I won’t go over all of his House predictions, but I agree with most of them. Browsing the list, I remain doubtful we’ll get FL-21, KY-02, NM-02, and NY-26, and am conflicted on our chances in WA-08 and PA-03. On the other hand, among his tossups, I feel like we should get NJ-07 and OH-01.
I think NC will go to us on the Gov level and will also win MN-Sen. I also have all of the “too close to call races” except NE-02 for us and I have AZ-03 and VA-05 as well as a few others of his Republican Holds going for us. And I’m not sure about IL-10 and FL-21 and think Republicans will win in KY-02 and NY-26.
KY-02 is a lost cause and we’re going to lose MD-01. Kratiwhateverhisnameis’s ceiling is about 44% in this district even with a moderate like him.
AL-02 should be in the Dem pick-up or at least toss-up. Bobby Bright is the strongest Dem to run for any federal office in Alabama in a very long time. He is also the perfect candidate to run statewide for Shelby’s seat if he should retire at the end of his term. Very few Southern Dems have ‘it’ and he just does.
On the other hand, his Presidential numbers are spot on. It’s going to be Kerry states + IA + NM + CO + NV + OH + FL + NC + VA + MO. I think we will come within 5 points in Montana, GA, and Indiana. North Dakota NE-02, and Arkansas are going to be single digit losses as well.